On some approaches to potential assessment of the bond market of macroregions of Russia

Abstract

The article considers methodological approaches of obtaining qualitative assessments of potential of the regional bond market in view of the federal districts of the Russian Federation, degree of development of the market and its possible growth. The potential of development of the regional bond market was assessed in two aspects: potential bond market volume in a region («region investor») and potential number of bonds issued («region issuer»). Open official statistics data, characterizing investment opportunities and needs of macroregions most adequately, as well as agency Expert RA expert estimation of the investment potential of the regions of the Russian Federation were used to obtain qualitative assessment of the market potential. The survey results were followed by assessment of the degree of actual realization of potential of the bond market in federal districts of the Russian Federation. Index approach was used for analysis, assessment and comparison of the degree of realization of potential of the bond market by federal districts of the Russian Federation. Clustering of macroregions by integral index has been carried out. On the basis of the performed model analysis the article gives estimation and makes a forecast of development of the obligation market by regions with allowance for the factors, characterizing investment climate in macroregions and its influence on realization of their investment potential qualitatively. The Agency for Strategic Initiatives data of the ranking of the investment climate condition in regions and agency Expert RA data on indices of investment risk in regions were used for calculations. The conclusions of the possible growth of volumes of the bond market in the Russian Federation, as well as of the necessary measures, were drawn.