Estimation of the Production Volume and Inventories of a Seasonal Products in the Conditions of Uncertainty of Demand with Minimum Expected Costs
Abstract
In work on the basis of methods of mathematical modeling the problem of calculation of volume of production and stocks of production in the conditions of uncertainty of the demand, providing the minimal costs connected with storage of unrealized production and loss of the unsatisfied demand is considered. A criterion of efficiency is proposed that minimizes the mathematical expectation of aggregate costs, the relevance of the problem is justified, and the formulation of the optimization problem is formulated. A mathematical model is constructed that takes into account the stochastic nature of demand for products, and a methodology for solving the problem with various combinations of the initial conditions is compiled. An example of the search for an optimal solution with a uniform density of the distribution of demand for products is given.
About the Authors
V. A. Zaev
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Zaev Victor A. - Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor
A. V. Logachov
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management; Siberian State University of Geosystems and Technologies; Sobolev Institute of Mathematics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Logachov Artyem V. - Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor
O. M. Logachova
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management; Siberian State University of Geosystems and Technologies
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Logachova Olga M. - Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor
S. E. Khrushchev
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Khrushchev Sergey E. - Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics
M. V. Pudova
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management
Russian Federation
Pudova Marina V. - Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics
Russian Federation
Pudova Marina V. - Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics
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Review
For citations:
Zaev V.A., Logachov A.V., Logachova O.M., Khrushchev S.E., Pudova M.V. Estimation of the Production Volume and Inventories of a Seasonal Products in the Conditions of Uncertainty of Demand with Minimum Expected Costs. Vestnik NSUEM. 2018;(2):313-320. (In Russ.)
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