The Method of Real Options and the Business Model «Lean Canvas» in the Practice of Performance Evaluation of it Projects
https://doi.org/10.34020/2073-6495-2021-4-080-092
Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the active implementation of IT technologies in various aspects of companies, which gives special importance to the development of a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of projects in a highly uncertain environment. The paper presents the methodology and assesses the effectiveness of IT projects using binomial «decision tree» model and iterative risk assessment metamodel «Lean Canvas». The comparative assessment of IT project efficiency using discounted cash flow method, binomial «decision tree» model and Black–Scholes model was carried out. The results have shown the advantage of option-based approach to the evaluation of IT project efficiency in comparison with the traditional DCF method, which allows to build flexibility in the planning and management of the project, assess its potential and consider the uncertainties as additional opportunities for profit.
About the Authors
M. S. KazRussian Federation
Kaz Mikhail S., Doctor of Economics, Professor
Tomsk
E. A. Akerman
Russian Federation
Akerman Ekaterina A., Junior Researcher, Institute of Economics and Management
Tomsk
References
1. Vasil’eva E.V., Deeva E.A. Metody jekspertnyh ocenok v prikladnoj informacionnoj jekonomike dlja obosnovanija preimushhestv informacionnyh sistem i tehnologij // Jekonomika XXI veka. 2017. № 4. P. 14–22.
2. Damodaran A. Investicionnaja ocenka. Instrumenty i tehnika ocenki ljubyh aktivov / per. s angl. M.: Al’pina Biznes Buks, 2004. 1342 p.
3. Kljuchnikov V.O. Real’nye opciony v proektah informacionnyh tehnologij // Rossijskoe predprinimatel’stvo. 2011. № 12 (2). P. 118–124.
4. Malyshev E.A., Podojnicyn R.G. Metod ocenki investicij na osnove real’nyh opcionov // Jekonomika regiona. 2013. № 1. P. 198–204.
5. Safonova L.A., Smolovik G.N. Ispol’zovanie teorii real’nyh opcionov v praktike prinjatija investicionnyh reshenij // Investicii. 2006. № 3. P. 62–68.
6. Clemons E.K., Weber B. Strategic Information Technology Investments: Guidelines // Journal of Management Information Systems. 1990. № 2. P. 9–28.
7. Myers S.C. Determinants of Corporate Borrowing // Journal of Financial Economics. 1977. Vol. 5. Issue 2. P. 147–175.
8. Baranov A.O., Muzyko E.I., Pavlov V.N. Nechetko – mnozhestvennaja ocenka parametrov jeffektivnosti innovacionnogo proekta // Finansy: teorija i praktika. 2016. 20 (6): 120–132. [Jelektronnyj resurs]. URL: https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2016- 20-6-120-132 (data obrashhenija: 10.08.2021).
9. Blank S. Berezhlivyj startap // Garvardskij delovoj obzor. [Jelektronnyj resurs]. URL: https://hbr-russia.ru/management/strategiya/a11618 (data obrashhenija: 15.04.2021).
10. Mertens A. Kak ocenit’ vozmozhnosti? Real’nye opciony v strategicheskih reshenijah. [Jelektronnyj resurs]. URL: https://docviewer.yandex.ru/ (data obrashhenija: 30.03. 2021).
11. Brautigam J. Uncertainty as a key value driver of real options // 7th Annual Real Options Conference. 2003. [Jelektronnyj resurs]. URL: http://www.realoptions.org/ papers2003/BraeutigamUncertainty.pdf (data obrashhenija: 19.04.2021).
12. Maurya A. Running Lean. [Jelektronnyj resurs]. URL: http://www.e-puzzle.ru (data obrashhenija: 28.03.2021).
13. Volatil’nost’ po otrasljam jekonomiki na janvar’ 2021 goda. [Jelektronnyj resurs]. URL: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/optvar.html po sektoru Software (System & Application) (data obrashhenija: 15.04.2021).
Review
For citations:
Kaz M.S., Akerman E.A. The Method of Real Options and the Business Model «Lean Canvas» in the Practice of Performance Evaluation of it Projects. Vestnik NSUEM. 2021;(4):80-92. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.34020/2073-6495-2021-4-080-092