Large-Scale Transport Projects: Accuracy in Cost Estimation
https://doi.org/10.34020/2073-6495-2021-4-213-225
Abstract
Currently, several studies have been conducted about overspending of funds in large-scale projects, including transport. International studies show that overspending by 20–100 % is not an exception, but an established fact. The article presents the results of comparing the estimated cost with the actual costs for several large-scale transport projects that were implemented on the territory of Russia. The conclusion is made about the need for a systematic analysis when evaluating the effectiveness of projects of this class.
About the Author
M. V. Pyataev
Siberian Transport University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Pyataev Maksim V., Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of System Analysis and Project Management
Novosibirsk
References
1. BAM – doroga nashej sud’by: vchera i segodnja: Jubilejnoe izdanie. V 3 ch. Ch. III. Komsomol’skij region Dal’nevostochnoj zheleznoj dorogi / avt.-sost A.I. Belozerov. Novosibirsk: Izd-vo SGUPSa, 2013. 672 p.
2. Glushhenko K.P. Ocenka obshhestvennoj jeffektivnosti investicionnyh proektov // Vestnik NGUJeU. 2019. № 3. P. 10–27. DOI: 10.34020/2073-6495-2019-3-010-027
3. Glushhenko K.P. Problemy ocenki krupnomasshtabnyh proektov // Vestnik NGUJeU. 2019. № 4. P. 26–40. DOI: 10.34020/2073-6495-2019-4-026-040
4. Zhuk A.A., Kolesnikova I.V.Mezhdunarodnyj opytsozdanija krupnyh infrastrukturnyh proektov // Jekonomicheskij analiz: teorija i praktika. 2017. T. 16. № 10. P. 1859–1877. https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.16.10.1859
5. Kolosova E.V., Novikov D.A., Cvetkov A.V. Metodika osvoennogo ob#ema v operativnom upravlenii proektami. M.: Apostrof, 2000. 156 p.
6. Mitrofanova I.V., Ivanov N.P., Mitrofanova I.A. i dr. Postolimpijskoe nasledie megaproekta «Sochi-2014»: «belye slony» i drajvery jekonomicheskogo rosta // Menedzhment i biznes-administrirovanie. 2014. № 4. P. 174–184.
7. Sajmon G. Nauki ob iskusstvennom / per. s angl.; izd. 3-e. M.: Editorial URSS, 2009. 144 p.
8. Serikov P.Ju. Ob investicijah v infrastrukturnye otrasli i uskorenii jekonomicheskogo rosta // Nauka i tehnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov. 2017. T. 7. № 6. P. 72–81. DOI: 10.28999/2541-9595-2017-7-6-72-81
9. Flivb’org B., Bruzelius N., Rotengatter V. Megaproekty i riski: anatomija ambicij / per. s angl. M.: Intellektual’naja literatura, 2020. 288 p.
10. Frolkina E.S. Naskol’ko chasto i pochemu proishodit pererashod bjudzheta v krupnyh infrastrukturnyh proektah // Nauchnye issledovanija i razrabotki. Rossijskij zhurnal upravlenija proektami. 2014.T. 3. № 1. P. 3–16. DOI: 10.12737/2689
11. Atif A., Flyvbjerg B., Budzier A., Lunn D. Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China // Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 2016.Vol. 32. No. 3. P. 360–390. DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grw022
12. Cantarelli C.C., Flyvbjerg B., Molin E.J.E., van Wee B. Cost Overruns in LargeScale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. 2010. 10 (1). P. 5–18. DOI: 10.18757/ejtir.2010.10.1.2864
13. Cantarelli C.C., Flyvbjerg B. Decision Making and Major Transport Infrastructure Projects: the Role of Project Ownership, in Robin Hickman, David Bonilla, Moshe Givoni, and David Banister, eds., Handbook on Transport and Development (Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar). 2015. P. 380–393.
14. Flyvbjerg B. & Bruzelius N. & Rothengatter. Chinese Edition of Megaprojects and Risk.Werner, 2018.
15. Flyvbjerg B., Holm M.K.S., Buhl S.L. «Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?» // Journal of the American Planning Association. 2002. Vol. 68. No. 3. P. 279–295.
16. Hall P. Great Planning Disasters. Penguin Books. Berkeley, Los Angeles, London: University of California Press, 1982. 308 p.
17. Kahneman D., Lovallo C. Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Choices, Values, and Frames. 1 February 2019. P. 393–413. DOI: 10.1017/ CBO9780511803475.023
18. Kaliba C., Muya M., Mumba K. Cost escalation and schedule delays in road construction projects in Zambia. International Journal of Project Management. 2009. Vol. 27. Issue 5. P. 522–531. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2008.07.003
19. Love P.E.D., Ahiaga-Dagbui D.D. «Debunking Fake News in a Post-Truth Era: The Plausible Untruths of Cost Underestimation in Transport Infrastructure Projects». Transportation Research A: Policy and Practice. 2018.Vol. 113. P. 357–368. 225
20. Merewitz L.How do urban rapid transit projects compare in cost estimating experience? Institute of Urban & Regional Development, University of California, 1973.
21. Merrow E.W. Cost Growth in New Process Facilities. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1983.
22. Merrow E.W., Kenneth P., Myers C.W. Understanding Cost Growth and Performance Shortfalls in Pioneer Process Plants. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1981.
23. Merrow E.W., McDonnell L.M., Arguden R.Y. Understanding the Outcomes of MegaProjects: A Quantitative Analysis of Very Large Civilian Projects. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1988.
24. Merrow E.W., Chapel S.W., Worthing C. A Review of Cost Estimation in New Technologies:Implications for Energy Process Plants. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1979.
25. Pickrell D. Urban rail transit projects: Forecast versus actual ridership and costs. Final report, 1989.
26. Skamris M.K., Flyvbjerg B.Accuracy of Traffic Forecasts and Cost Estimates on Large Transportation Projects // Transportation Research Record. 1996. Issue 1518. P. 65–69. DOI: 10.3141/1518-12
27. Van Wee. Large infrastructure projects: a review of the quality of demand forecasts and cost estimations. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2007.Vol. 34. No. 4. P. 611-625. DOI: 10.1068/b32110
28. GAO/RCED-97-47 Managing the Costs of Highway Projects // United States General Accounting Office. Washington, D.C. 20548. URL:// https://www.gao.gov/assets/rced97-47.pdf (data obrashhenija: 25.03.2021).
Review
For citations:
Pyataev M.V. Large-Scale Transport Projects: Accuracy in Cost Estimation. Vestnik NSUEM. 2021;(4):213-225. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.34020/2073-6495-2021-4-213-225
Email this article 
