The impact of postponing marriage on the birth rate in Russia (based on Census Data)
https://doi.org/10.34020/2073-6495-2025-4-091-110
Abstract
The effectiveness of demographic policy in Russia is decreasing due to the fact that the state helps married couples who already have at least one child, but does not stimulate marriage. The average number of children among married mothers has increased somewhat. But this positive trend was offset by the mass postponement of marriage, which led to an increase in the proportion of unmarried and childless people. It is necessary to develop housing construction programs intended not only for sale, but also for rent, so that spouses can live separately from their parents immediately after the wedding. This can contribute to an earlier first marriage and the birth of first children. In addition, the media and educational institutions should form social norms in Russian society according to which it is better to have a friendly, albeit poor, family with children than to be rich but single or childless.
About the Authors
A. B. SinelnikovRussian Federation
Alexander B. Sinelnikov, Doctor of Sociological Sciences, Associate professor, Professor, Principal Researcher
Faculty of Sociology; Department of Family Sociology and Demography
Moscow
O. A. Zolotareva
Russian Federation
Olga A. Zolotareva, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Principal Researcher
Department of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Management
Moscow
V. M. Karpova
Russian Federation
Vera M. Karpova, Candidate of Sociological Sciences, Leading Researcher
Laboratory for the Study of Population Health and the Health System
Moscow
References
1. Andreev E.M., Churilova E.V., Rodina O.A., Chertenkov K.O. Rossijskaja rozhdaemost’ v XXI veke i perspektivy ee povyshenija [Russian fertility in the 21<sup>st</sup> century and prospects for its increase], Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review], 2025, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 87–107. doi: 10.17323/demreview.v12i2.27495 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
2. Arhangel’skij V.N., Zolotareva O.A., Kuchmaeva O.V. Dva podhoda k izmereniju rezul’tativnosti demograficheskoj politiki (na primere federal’nogo materinskogo kapitala) [Two approaches to assessing the effectiveness of demographic policy (using the example of federal maternity capital)], Jekonomicheskie i social’nye peremeny: fakty, tendencii, prognoz [Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast], 2024, vol. 17, no. 6, pp. 77–97. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2024.6.96.4.
3. Zaharov S.V., Churilova E.V., Agadzhanjan V.S. Rozhdaemost’ v povtornyh sojuzah v Rossii: pozvoljaet li vstuplenie v novyj supruzheskij sojuz dostich’ ideala dvuhdetnoj sem’i? [Fertility in higher-order marital unions in Russia: does a new partnership allow for the realization of the two-child ideal?], Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review], 2016, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 35–51. Available at: doi: 10.17323/demreview.v3i1.1762 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
4. Kalabihina I.E., Kuznecova P.O. Porjadkovyj perehod v rozhdaemosti v Rossii [Parity transition in Russia], Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review], 2025, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 108–131. doi: 10.17323/demreview.v12i2.27497 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
5. Kishenin P.A., Zinina A.I., Maksimova T.A. Tempy snizhenija rozhdaemosti vozrastajut po vsemu miru: lovushka nizkoj rozhdaemosti vsjo verojatnee? [The intensity of fertility decline is increasing worldwide: Is a low fertility trap increasingly likely?], Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review], 2024, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 4–43. doi: 10.17323/demreview.v11i4.24288 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
6. Naselenie Rossii 2019. Dvadcat’ sed’moj ezhegodnyj demograficheskij doklad [Population of Russia 2019: Twenty-seventh annual demographic report], otv. red. S.V. Zaharov. Moscow, Izd. dom gos. un-ta – Vysshej shkoly jekonomiki, 2022. Available at: http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/knigi/ns_r19/sod_r.html (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
7. Vserossijskaja perepis’ naselenija 2002 goda [All-Russian Population Census 2002]. Available at: https://www.perepis2002.ru/index.html?id=30; https://www.perepis2002.ru/index.html?id=31 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
8. Vserossijskaja perepis’ naselenija 2010 goda [All-Russian Population Census 2010]. Available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/croc/perepis_itogi1612.htm (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
9. Vserossijskaja perepis’ naselenija 2020 goda [All-Russian Population Census 2020]. Available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/vpn/2020/Tom9_Rozhdaemost; https://rosstat.gov.ru/vpn/2020/Tom2_Vozrastno_polovoj_sostav_i_sostoyanie_v_brake (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
10. Vsesojuznaja perepis’ naselenija 1979 g. Raspredelenie naselenija regionov RSFSR po polu, vozrastu i sostojaniju v brake [All-Union Population Census of 1979. Distribution of the population of the regions of the RSFSR by gender, age and marital status]. Available at: https://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/ssp/sng_mar_79.php?reg=1 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
11. Vsesojuznaja perepis’ naselenija 1989 g. Raspredelenie gorodskogo i sel’skogo naselenija Rossii po brachnomu sostojaniju, polu i vozrastu [All-Union Population Census of 1989. Distribution of the urban and rural population of Russia by marital status, gender and age]. Available at: https://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/ssp/rus_mar_89_1.php (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
12. Andreev E.M., Churilova E.V. Rezul’taty Vserossijskoj perepisi naselenija 2021 goda v svete statistiki tekushhego ucheta naselenija i perepisej predydushhih let [Results of the 2021 All-Russian Population Census in light of current population statistics and censuses of previous years], Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review], 2023, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 4–20. doi: 10.17323/demreview.v10i3.17967 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
13. VCIOM. Ideal’naja sem’ja – 2023 [VTSIOM. Ideal Family – 2023]. Available at: https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/idealnaja-semja-2023 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
14. Klinenberg E. Going Solo: The Extraordinary Rise and Surprising Appeal of Living Alone, New York: Penguin Books, 2012. 273 p.
15. Rostovskaja T.K., Sinel’nikov A.B. Cennosti braka kak osnova blagopoluchija rossijskih semej [Marriage Values as the Basis for the Russian Families Well-Being], Voprosy upravlenija [Management Issues], 2025, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 6–16. EDN: BRNKHT.
16. Sinel’nikov A.B., Zolotareva O.A., Habib M.D. Ocenka vzaimosvjazi brachnosti s razvodimost’ju i rozhdaemost’ju [Evaluation of the relationship between marriage, divorce and fertility], Vestnik universiteta [University Bulletin], 2024, no. 12, pp. 180–195. doi: 10.26425/1816-4277-2024-12-180-195 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
17. Jadgarov M.Ja., Kuzovlev A.N., Berikashvili L.B., Baeva A.A., Lihvancev V.V. Vazhnost’ ocenki zakona raspredelenija dannyh: teorija i prakticheskoe rukovodstvo [Importance of data distribution normality test: theory and practical guide], Anesteziologija i reanimatologija [Russian Journal of Anaesthesiology and Reanimatology], 2021, no. 2, pp. 136–142. doi: 10.17116/anaesthesiology2021021136 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
18. Practice Committee of the American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Optimizing natural fertility: a committee opinion, Fertility and Sterility, 2022, vol. 117, no. 1, pp. 53–63. doi: 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2021.10.007 (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
19. Sinel’nikov A.B. Braki i razvody v sovremennom obshhestve: sociologicheskij analiz. Uchebnoe posobie [Marriages and Divorces in Modern Society: Sociological Analysis. Study Guide]. Moscow, Izdatel’stvo «Pero», 2022. 392 p. Available at: https://istina.msu.ru/publications/book/510459430/ (accessed: 23. 07. 2025).
20. Hajnal J. European Marriage Patterns in Perspective. In: D.V. Glass, D.E.C. Eversley (eds.). Population in History. London, 1965, pp. 101–143.
Review
For citations:
Sinelnikov A.B., Zolotareva O.A., Karpova V.M. The impact of postponing marriage on the birth rate in Russia (based on Census Data). Vestnik NSUEM. 2025;(4):91-110. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.34020/2073-6495-2025-4-091-110

























