Strategic development vectors for the oil and oilfield services industries using energy foresight aimed at eliminating and mitigating threats

Abstract

In today’s context of geopolitical instability and accelerated energy transition, defining strategic development vectors for the oil industry plays a significant role in shaping the industry’s sustainable development. This article proposes a mechanism for mitigating and eliminating risks and threats in the oil industry as a basis for defining strategic development directions for this market segment. Energy foresight served as a link between the risk management process and scenario-based development of the oil industry. Energy foresight is a key element in developing a long-term strategy, ensuring the sustainable development of the oil industry. As part of the energy foresight, a map of oil industry development trends was developed by identifying short-, medium-, and long-term periods and low, medium, and high levels of influence of trends on the oil industry’s development. The study also developed a Roadmap for the Development of the Russian Oilfield Services Industry. A forecast for reducing import dependence in oilfield services is presented, based on three development scenarios: stabilization, modernization, and transformation. The creation of a National Innovation and Technology Center for Oilfield Services Development is proposed, which will ensure the intensive development of oilfield services in the Russian Federation. The presented strategic vectors for the development of the oil industry and oilfield services will contribute to the sustainable development of the fuel and energy complex.