STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MAIN SOCIAL-ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE ORENBURG REGION
Abstract
The work presents the theoretical and methodological research basics of economic cyclicality, main classifications of economic cycles, research findings of cyclicality of socialeconomic indicators of Orenburg region economics by way of different statistical methods. The study was conducted with time series free from seasonal fluctuations and irregular component. Research of cycles in economics of the Orenburg region with regard to the trend has been done for the first time. Statistic basis of the research has been made up of official monthly data of Territorial body of Federal Agency of State Statistics in the Orenburg region in 1995–2012.
About the Author
V. N. AfanasjevRussian Federation
Doctor of Economics, Professor , Head of the Chair of Statistics and Econometrics
References
1. Afanas’ev V.N. Statisticheskoe obespechenie problemy ustojchivosti sel’skohozjajst- vennogo proizvodstva. M.: Finansy i statistika, 1996. 320 p.
2. Afanas’ev V.N., Lebedeva T.V. Statisticheskie metody prognozirovanija v jekonomike: uchebno-metod. posobie. M.: Finansy i statistika, 2009. 180 p.
3. Afanas’ev V.N., Juzbashev M.M. Analiz vremennyh rjadov i prognozirovanie. M.: Finansy i statistika, 2010. 320 p.
4. Borovikov V.P., Ivchenko G.I. Prognozirovanie v sisteme STATISTICA v srede Windows: osnovy teorii i intensivnaja praktika na komp’jutere: ucheb. posobie dlja vuzov. M.: Finansy i statistika, 1999. 384 p.
5. Zarova E.V. Statisticheskie indikatory kratkosrochnyh jekonomicheskih ciklov v razvitii regiona: monografija. Samara: Izd-vo Samar. gos. jekon. un-ta, 2010. 215 p.
6. Kovalevskij V.P., Shevrina E.V., Afanas’eva A.V., Afanas’ev V.N. Formirovanie ustoj- chivogo agroprodovol’stvennogo rynka v Rossijskoj Federacii: statisticheskie issledo- vanija / pod red. prof. V.N. Afanas’eva. M.: Finansy i statistika, 2008. 288 p.
7. Kuznecova V.E. Statisticheskoe modelirovanie vremennyh rjadov s ispol’zovaniem klassicheskoj sezonnoj dekompozicii (metod Census 1) PPP Statistica. Orenburg: GOU VPO OGU, 2003. 33 p.
8. Kuranov G.O. Sezonnost’ i ciklichnost’ kak strukturnye faktory makrojekonomiches- koj dinamiki // Voprosy statistiki. 2012. № 4. P. 14–20.
9. Lukashin Ju.P. Adaptivnye metody kratkosrochnogo prognozirovanija vremennyh rjadov: ucheb. posobie dlja vuzov. M.: Finansy i statistika, 2003. 416 p.
10. Rajskaja N.N., Sergienko Ja.V., Frenkel’ A.A., Vovk O.A. Statisticheskoe issledovanie ciklicheskih kolebanij razvivajushhegosja rynka na primere rossijskoj jekonomiki // Voprosy statistiki. 2008. № 10. P. 4–8.
11. Smirnov S. Sistema operezhajushhih indikatorov dlja Rossii // Voprosy jekonomiki. 2003. № 2. P. 23–42.
12. Teorija statistiki: ucheb. dlja studentov jekon. special’nostej vuzov / pod red. G.L. Gromyko. 2-e izd., pererab. i dop. M.: INFRA-M, 2011. 476 p.
Review
For citations:
Afanasjev V.N. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MAIN SOCIAL-ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE ORENBURG REGION. Vestnik NSUEM. 2013;(4):101-125. (In Russ.)