DOES MIGRATION LEAD TO REGIONAL CONVERGENCE IN RUSSIA?
Abstract
We analyze the impact of migration on wage, unemployment rate and income. Using Russian official statistical database from 1995 to 2010 we estimate dynamic panel data model with spatial effects. There is no significant impact of migration on unemployment rate. There is a positive spatial effect for wage and unemployment. We find negative rela- tionship between net internal migration, and both wage and income, which is explained by positive effect of out-migration on wage and income. However, the migration benefits are not big enough to make a difference on Gini index across regions. We conclude that migration does not affect regional convergence of economic indicators. This study was car- ried out within The National Research University Higher School of Economics’ Academic Fund Program in 2013–2014, research grant N 12-01-0175.
About the Author
E. S. Vakulenko
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Russian Federation
Post-graduate student, Senior lecturer, Chair of Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Russian Federation
Post-graduate student, Senior lecturer, Chair of Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
References
1. Glushhenko K.P. Mify o beta-konvergencii // Zhurnal Novoj jekonomicheskoj associacii. 2012. № 4(16). P. 27–44.
2. Krivenko P.A. Obmen idejami, migracija i jekonomicheskij rost / Preprint WP12/2010/ 05. Gos. un-t – Vysshaja shkola jekonomiki. M.: GU – VShJe, 2010. 48 p.
3. Mkrtchjan N.V. Migracija v Rossii: zapadnyj drejf. Informacionnyj bjulleten’ / Centr demografii i jekologii cheloveka INP RAN. M., 2004. № 87.
4. Arellano M., Bond S. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. The Review of Economic Studies. 1991. Vol. 58, N 2. P. 277–297.
5. Aydemir A., Borjas G.J. A Comparative Analysis of the Labor Market Impact of International Migration: Canada, Mexico, and the United States / NBER Working Papers 12327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 2006.
6. Barro R.J., Sala-i-Martin X. Convergence across States and Regions. Brookings Paperson Economic Activity, 1991 (1). P. 107–182.
7. Blundell R., Bond S. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 87. 1998 P. 115–143.
8. Borjas G.J. Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants // American Economic Review. 1987. 77(4). P. 531.
9. Borjas G.J. The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market // The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press. 2003. 118(4). P. 1335–1374.
10. Borjas G.J. The Labor-Market Impact of High-Skill Immigration // American Economic Review. 2005. 95(2). P. 56–60.
11. Borjas G.J. The Analytics of the Wage Effect of Immigration / NBER Working Papers 14796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 2009.
12. Cass D. Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation // Review of Economic Studies. 1965. 32. P. 233–240.
13. Dustmann C., Frattini T., Preston I. The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages, CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0803, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London. 2008.
14. Fratesi U., Riggi M.R. Does migration reduce regional disparities? The role of skillselective flows. RURDS, 2007. Vol. 19. N 1.
15. Gluschenko K. Methodologies of analyzing inter-regional income inequality and their applications to Russia. MPRA Paper N 18443. 2009. URL:http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/18443/
16. Guriev S., Vakulenko E. Convergence among Russian regions. CEFIR / NES Working Paper. 2012. N 180.
17. Guriev S., Vakulenko E. Internal Migration and Interregional Convergence in Russia. Social Science Research Network Working Paper Series. № 2200539. 2013.
18. Koopmans T.C. On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth / The Econometric Approach to Development Planning. Amsterdam: North Holland. 1965.
19. Kukenova M., Monteiro J.-A. Spatial Dynamic Panel Model and System GMM: A Monte Carlo Investigation, MPRA Paper 13404, University Library of Munich, Germany. 2008.
20. Krugman P. Increasing returns and Economic geography // Journal of Political Economy. 1991. Vol. 99. N 3.
21. Larramona G., Sanso M. Migration dynamics, growth and convergence // Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control. 2006. N 30. P. 2261–2279.
22. Lucas R. Ideas and Growth / NBER Working Paper N W14133. 2008.
23. Niebuhr A., Granato N., Haas A., & Hamann S. Does Labour Mobility Reduce Disparities between Regional Labour Markets in Germany? // Regional Studies. 2011. P. 1–18.
24. Ozgen C., Nijkamp P., Poot J. The effect of migration on income growth and convergence: Meta-analytic evidence // Papers in Regional Science. 2010. 89(3). P. 537–561.
25. Ostbye S. and Westerlund O. Is Migration Important for Regional Convergence? Comparative Evidence for Norwegian and Swedish Counties, 1980–2000 // Regional Studies. 2007. Vol. 41.7, P. 901–915.
26. Phan D., Coxhead I. Inter-provincial migration and inequality during Vietnam’s transition // Journal of Development Economics. 2010. N 91. P. 100–112.
27. Ramsey F. A Mathematical Theory of Saving // Economic Journal. 38. P. 543–559.
28. Rappaport J. (2005). How does labor mobility affect income convergence? // Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control. 1928. N 29. P. 567–581.
29. Tabuchi T., Thisse J.-F. Taste heterogeneity, labor mobility and economic geography // Journal of Development Economics. 2002. N 69. P. 155–177.
Review
For citations:
Vakulenko E.S. DOES MIGRATION LEAD TO REGIONAL CONVERGENCE IN RUSSIA? Vestnik NSUEM. 2013;(4):239-264. (In Russ.)
Email this article 
