SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF RISKS OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
Abstract
Current real estate market conditions with uncertain price trends and contradictory forecasts imply the following: precise level and probability of losses as well as effective risk management decisions might be achieved only with integrated approach. The paper examines and implements combining sensitivity analysis, decision tree, Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis in one risk assessment algorithm. According to the developed algorithm the risks of real estate development project were estimated and necessary recommendations were formulated.
About the Authors
V. V. Nazarova
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Saint Petersburg
Russian Federation
Ph.D.,AssociateProfessor,ChairofFinancialMarketsandFinancial Managemen
Russian Federation
Ph.D.,AssociateProfessor,ChairofFinancialMarketsandFinancial Managemen
E. V. Morozova
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Saint Petersburg
Russian Federation
Candidatefor a Master’s Degree
Russian Federation
Candidatefor a Master’s Degree
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Review
For citations:
Nazarova V.V., Morozova E.V. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF RISKS OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY CONSTRUCTION PROJECT. Vestnik NSUEM. 2014;(2):71-83. (In Russ.)
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