MODELS OF COMPLEX CONSIDERATION OF UNCERTAINTY FACTORS IN INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY
Abstract
The main factors of uncertainty required to be considered in oil and gas investment project evaluation are analyzed and systemized. The article considers methods of complex consideration of the main uncertainty factors: real option method, modeling with probability (decision tree and Monte Carlo method). Results of experimental calculations that simultaneously consider geological, economical and managerial uncertainty factors.
About the Authors
A. O. Kostylev
Novosibirsk State University
Russian Federation
Postgraduate
Russian Federation
Postgraduate
L. V. Skopina
Novosibirsk State University
Russian Federation
PhD in Economics, Associated Professor, Chair of the application of mathematical methods in economics and planning
Russian Federation
PhD in Economics, Associated Professor, Chair of the application of mathematical methods in economics and planning
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Review
For citations:
Kostylev A.O., Skopina L.V. MODELS OF COMPLEX CONSIDERATION OF UNCERTAINTY FACTORS IN INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY. Vestnik NSUEM. 2015;(2):214-230. (In Russ.)
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