STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF DYNAMICS AND FORECAST CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE REGION

Abstract

There is currently no method of determining the dynamics of the climate change area. Do not designed and methodology, definitions quantifying average annual climate change in the region. We propose a method for predicting exploded based on the establishment of the dynamics of the individual elements and the formation of the state of the weather forecast on the projected year. The method of multivariate analysis of crop yields gen- erated statistical model of multi-dependence. Substituting the resulting model indicators of weather elements for years, can be obtained investigated the dynamics of generalized weather conditions. Economic analysis of the data in comparison with the actual crop yield provides a picture of the distribution of good and bad years in the studied time interval. The problem of studying the intensity of climate change area is particularly relevant in areas of risk farming. The question may arise about the different levels of meteorologists on the dynamics of climatic conditions on the planet. In our opinion, the most objective judgment about climate change will be given on climate change area on the basis of output indicators, such as yield!