METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO SCENARIOS DEVELOPMENT FOR PROJECT IN CONSTRUCTION FIELD
Abstract
Scenario method of risk analysis significantly increases efficiency of estimation of possible project losses in uncertain environment, with multidirectional trends on real estate market and relatively long time horizon. Subsequently it can be of defining value both for taking effective managerial decisions in the course of project realization, and for its total estimation. The article reveals essential characteristics of the scenario method: analysis and generalization of approaches to the definition of the «scenario» notion as well as their classification are made, methods of scenarios elaboration as the most difficult step in risk valuation process are considered. Scenario algorithm of risk analysis for residential property project is developed.
About the Authors
V. V. Nazarova
National Research University Higher School of Economics (St. Petersburg)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Ph.D., Associate Professor, Chair of Financial Markets and Financial Management
E. V. Morozova
National Research University Higher School of Economics (St. Petersburg)
Russian Federation
Candidate for a Master’s Degree
Russian Federation
Candidate for a Master’s Degree
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Review
For citations:
Nazarova V.V., Morozova E.V. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO SCENARIOS DEVELOPMENT FOR PROJECT IN CONSTRUCTION FIELD. Vestnik NSUEM. 2014;(1):115-133. (In Russ.)
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